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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Target-Oriented Statistical Compression: Sufficiency, Rev...
Yuan-chin Ivan Chang · 2026-05-26 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Statistical procedures rarely retain all features of the observed data. A sufficient statistic removes information irrelevant to a parameter; a maximum likelihood estimate compresses an empirical objective into an optimizing point; and a hidden state in a sequential model compresses past observations into a learned representation. This article develops these practices under the unified notion of \emph{target-oriented statistical compression}: a useful summary preserves what matters for an inferential, predictive, or decision-relevant target, rather than every detail of the realized data path. The central object is the conditional target process \(M_n=\E(Z\given\G_n)\), where \(Z\) is the target and \(\G_n=σ(T_n)\) is the information retained by the compression map \(T_n\). When \((\G_n)\) is a decreasing filtration, \((M_n)\) is a reverse martingale with limit \(M_\infty=\E(Z\given\G_\infty)\). Exact sufficiency corresponds to lossless compression, while approximate summaries such as penalized estimators, principal components, and neural-network hidden states produce reverse quasi-martingale defects measuring coherence loss across compression levels. The diagnostic \(r_n=|M_n-M_{n-1}|\) is treated as an observable stability proxy, not as an unbiased estimator of the theoretical defect. Boundary degeneracy in sequential binary problems is developed as a central application. Practical boundary claims require joint assessment of boundary closeness, uncertainty control, and trajectory stability. The companion paper \citet{chang2025rm} develops the corresponding stopping procedures, finite-sample bounds, and numerical evidence; the present paper provides the broader theoretical infrastructure and extends the framework to Gaussian, Poisson, and quasi-martingale monitoring problems.