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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
A General Derivative Identity for the Conditional Mean Es...
2021-04-05 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Consider a channel ${\bf Y}={\bf X}+ {\bf N}$ where ${\bf X}$ is an $n$-dimensional random vector, and ${\bf N}$ is a Gaussian vector with a covariance matrix ${\bf \mathsf{K}}_{\bf N}$. The object under consideration in this paper is the conditional mean of ${\bf X}$ given ${\bf Y}={\bf y}$, that is ${\bf y} \to E[{\bf X}|{\bf Y}={\bf y}]$. Several identities in the literature connect $E[{\bf X}|{\bf Y}={\bf y}]$ to other quantities such as the conditional variance, score functions, and higher-order conditional moments. The objective of this paper is to provide a unifying view of these identities. In the first part of the paper, a general derivative identity for the conditional mean is derived. Specifically, for the Markov chain ${\bf U} \leftrightarrow {\bf X} \leftrightarrow {\bf Y}$, it is shown that the Jacobian of $E[{\bf U}|{\bf Y}={\bf y}]$ is given by ${\bf \mathsf{K}}_{\bf N}^{-1} {\bf Cov} ( {\bf X}, {\bf U} | {\bf Y}={\bf y})$. In the second part of the paper, via various choices of ${\bf U}$, the new identity is used to generalize many of the known identities and derive some new ones. First, a simple proof of the Hatsel and Nolte identity for the conditional variance is shown. Second, a simple proof of the recursive identity due to Jaffer is provided. Third, a new connection between the conditional cumulants and the conditional expectation is shown. In particular, it is shown that the $k$-th derivative of $E[X|Y=y]$ is the $(k+1)$-th conditional cumulant. The third part of the paper considers some applications. In a first application, the power series and the compositional inverse of $E[X|Y=y]$ are derived. In a second application, the distribution of the estimator error $(X-E[X|Y])$ is derived. In a third application, we construct consistent estimators (empirical Bayes estimators) of the conditional cumulants from an i.i.d. sequence $Y_1,...,Y_n$.