惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
月光博客
月光博客
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
博客园 - 聂微东
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
雷峰网
雷峰网
小众软件
小众软件
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
博客园 - 叶小钗
美团技术团队
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
A
About on SuperTechFans
Jina AI
Jina AI
D
Docker
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Posterior contraction under misspecification and heterosc...
Fanny Seizilles, Maximilian Siebel · 2026-03-30 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In many practical and numerical inverse problems, the exact data log-likelihood is not fully accessible, motivating the use of surrogate models. We study heteroscedastic nonparametric nonlinear regression problems with Gaussian errors and establish contraction results for posterior distributions arising from a surrogate log-likelihood constructed from proxy error variances, an approximate forward map, and an appropriate Gaussian process prior. Under general assumptions on the approximation quality, we show that the resulting surrogate posterior is statistically reliable and contracts about the true parameter at rates comparable to those of the exact posterior. The analysis leverages consistency properties of the (penalised) MLE to effectively handle heteroscedastic noise and to control the impact of likelihood approximation errors. We apply the framework to PDE-constrained inverse problems for a reaction-diffusion equation and the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equation. In the latter case, we consider misspecified viscosity and forcing terms as well as Oseen-type linearization models, highlighting the relevance of our results for numerical analysis applications.