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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Analytic Loss Distributional Approach Model for Operation...
Gareth W. Peters, Pavel Shevchenko, Mark Young, Wendy Yip · 2011-02-17 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss process corresponding to the Basel II Business line/event type. In this paper we derive a novel class of doubly stochastic alpha-stable family LDA models. These models provide the ability to capture the heavy tailed loss process typical of OpRisk whilst also providing analytic expressions for the compound process annual loss density and distributions as well as the aggregated compound process annual loss models. In particular we develop models of the annual loss process in two scenarios. The first scenario considers the loss process with a stochastic intensity parameter, resulting in an inhomogeneous compound Poisson processes annually. The resulting arrival process of losses under such a model will have independent counts over increments within the year. The second scenario considers discretization of the annual loss process into monthly increments with dependent time increments as captured by a Binomial process with a stochastic probability of success changing annually. Each of these models will be coupled under an LDA framework with heavy-tailed severity models comprised of $α$-stable severities for the loss amounts per loss event. In this paper we will derive analytic results for the annual loss distribution density and distribution under each of these models and study their properties.