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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Anytime-valid inference in N-of-1 trials
Ivana Malenica, Yongyi Guo, Kyra Gan, Stefan Konigorski · 2023-09-14 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

App-based N-of-1 trials offer a scalable experimental design for assessing the effects of health interventions at an individual level. Their practical success depends on the strong motivation of participants, which, in turn, translates into high adherence and reduced loss to follow-up. One way to maintain participant engagement is by sharing their interim results. Continuously testing hypotheses during a trial, known as "peeking", can also lead to shorter, lower-risk trials by detecting strong effects early. Nevertheless, traditionally, results are only presented upon the trial's conclusion. In this work, we introduce a potential outcomes framework that permits interim peeking of the results and enables statistically valid inferences to be drawn at any point during N-of-1 trials. Our work builds on the growing literature on valid confidence sequences, which enables anytime-valid inference with uniform type-1 error guarantees over time. We propose several causal estimands for treatment effects applicable in an N-of-1 trial and demonstrate, through empirical evaluation, that the proposed approach results in valid confidence sequences over time. We anticipate that incorporating anytime-valid inference into clinical trials can significantly enhance trial participation and empower participants.