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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
On the last time and the number of times an estimator is ...
Nils Lid Hjort, Grete Fenstad · 2026-03-10 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Suppose $\widehatθ_n$ is a strongly consistent estimator for $θ_0$ in some i.i.d. situation. Let $N_\varepsilon$ and $Q_\varepsilon$ be respectively the last $n$ and the total number of $n$ for which $\widehatθ_n$ is at least $\varepsilon$ away from $θ_0$. The limit distributions for ${\varepsilon}^2 N_\varepsilon$ and ${\varepsilon}^2 Q_\varepsilon$ as $\varepsilon$ goes to zero are obtained under natural and weak conditions. The theory covers both parametric and nonparametric cases, multi-dimensional parameters, and general distance functions. Our results are of probabilistic interest, and, on the statistical side, suggest ways in which competing estimators can be compared. In particular several new optimality properties for the maximum likelihood estimator sequence in parametric families are established. Another use of our results is ways of constructing sequential fixed-volume or shrinking-volume confidence sets, as well as sequential tests with power 1. The paper also includes limit distribution results for the last $n$ and the number of $n$ for which the supremum distance $\|F_n-F\|\ge\varepsilon$, where $F_n$ is the empirical distribution function. Yet other results are reached for $\varepsilon^{5/2} N_\varepsilon$ and $\varepsilon^{5/2} Q_\varepsilon$ in the context of nonparametric density estimation, referring to the last time and the number of times where $|f_n(x) f(x)|\ge\varepsilon$. Finally it is shown that our results extend to several non-i.i.d. situations.