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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Estimation for multistate models subject to reporting del...
K. Buchardt, C. Furrer, O. L. Sandqvist · 2023-11-08 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Accurate forecasting of an insurer's outstanding liabilities is vital for the solvency of insurance companies and the financial stability of the insurance sector. For health and disability insurance, the liabilities are intimately linked with the biometric event history of the insured. Complete observation of event histories is often impossible due to sampling effects such as right-censoring and left-truncation, but also due to reporting delays and incomplete event adjudication. In this paper, we develop a parametric two-step M-estimation method that takes the aforementioned effects into account, treating the latter two as partially exogenous. The approach is valid under weak assumptions and allows for complicated dependencies between the event history, reporting delays, and adjudication while remaining relatively simple to implement. The estimation approach has desirable properties which are demonstrated by theoretical results and numerical experiments. In the application, we introduce and consider a large portfolio of disability insurance policies. We find that properly accounting for the sampling effects has a large impact on the number of disabilities and reactivations that an insurer would forecast, allowing for a more accurate assessment of the insurer's liabilities and improved risk management.