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Adaptive Sequential Change Detection using Mixtures of Pr...
Topi Halme, H. Vincent Poor, Visa Koivunen · 2026-06-04 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This paper studies the problem of detecting a change in the distribution of a sequence of independent observations when the post-change distribution is unknown. We propose a novel change detection algorithm, termed Predictive-Mixture CuSum (PM-CuSum), which combines predictive distributions constructed from sliding windows of different lengths within a CuSum recursion. The predictive distributions are aggregated using adaptive weights based on their recent predictive performance. We show that PM-CuSum achieves first-order asymptotic optimality under mild conditions, and that its asymptotic delay bound has a smaller remainder order than what is achieved procedures using a single fixed (even oracle) window. Numerical simulations demonstrate that PM-CuSum performs well compared to existing methods. Moreover, it is demonstrated that forming likelihood ratios using full predictive distributions can substantially improve performance compared to plug-in likelihoods.