惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

GbyAI
GbyAI
Jina AI
Jina AI
月光博客
月光博客
博客园_首页
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
IT之家
IT之家
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
V
Visual Studio Blog
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
量子位
博客园 - 【当耐特】
The Cloudflare Blog
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
博客园 - 聂微东
博客园 - 叶小钗
美团技术团队
G
Google Developers Blog
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
博客园 - Franky
小众软件
小众软件

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Uncertainty of high-dimensional genetic data prediction w...
Haoxuan Fu, Jiaoyang Huang, Zirui Fan, Bingxin Zhao · 2024-12-30 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In many predictive tasks, there are a large number of true predictors with weak signals, leading to substantial uncertainties in prediction outcomes. The polygenic risk score (PRS) is an example of such a scenario, where many genetic variants are used as predictors for complex traits, each contributing only a small amount of information. Although PRS has been a standard tool in genetic predictions, its uncertainty remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we aim to establish the asymptotic normality of PRS in high-dimensional predictions without sparsity constraints. We investigate the popular marginal and ridge-type estimators in PRS applications, developing central limit theorems for both individual-level predicted values (e.g., genetically predicted human height) and cohort-level prediction accuracy measures (e.g., overall predictive $R$-squared in the testing dataset). Our results demonstrate that ignoring the prediction-induced uncertainty can lead to substantial underestimation of the true variance of PRS-based estimators, which in turn may cause overconfidence in the accuracy of confidence intervals and hypothesis testing. These findings provide key insights omitted by existing first-order asymptotic studies of high-dimensional sparsity-free predictions, which often focus solely on the point limits of predictive risks. We develop novel and flexible second-order random matrix theory results to assess the asymptotic normality of functionals with a general covariance matrix, without assuming Gaussian distributions for the data. We evaluate our theoretical results through extensive numerical analyses using real data from the UK Biobank. Our analysis underscores the importance of incorporating uncertainty assessments at both the individual and cohort levels when applying and interpreting PRS.