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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
A Power Analysis of the Conditional Randomization Test an...
Wenshuo Wang, Lucas Janson · 2020-10-06 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In many scientific problems, researchers try to relate a response variable $Y$ to a set of potential explanatory variables $X = (X_1,\dots,X_p)$, and start by trying to identify variables that contribute to this relationship. In statistical terms, this goal can be posed as trying to identify $X_j$'s upon which $Y$ is conditionally dependent. Sometimes it is of value to simultaneously test for each $j$, which is more commonly known as variable selection. The conditional randomization test (CRT) and model-X knockoffs are two recently proposed methods that respectively perform conditional independence testing and variable selection by, for each $X_j$, computing any test statistic on the data and assessing that test statistic's significance by comparing it to test statistics computed on synthetic variables generated using knowledge of $X$'s distribution. Our main contribution is to analyze their power in a high-dimensional linear model where the ratio of the dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ converge to a positive constant. We give explicit expressions of the asymptotic power of the CRT, variable selection with CRT $p$-values, and model-X knockoffs, each with a test statistic based on either the marginal covariance, the least squares coefficient, or the lasso. One useful application of our analysis is the direct theoretical comparison of the asymptotic powers of variable selection with CRT $p$-values and model-X knockoffs; in the instances with independent covariates that we consider, the CRT provably dominates knockoffs. We also analyze the power gain from using unlabeled data in the CRT when limited knowledge of $X$'s distribution is available, and the power of the CRT when samples are collected retrospectively.