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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
On the Nonasymptotic Scaling Guarantee of Hyperparameter ...
Yi Yu, Yubo Hou, Yinchong Wang, Nan Zhang, Jianfeng Feng, Wenlia · 2026-01-22 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Hierarchical Bayesian models are increasingly used in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems by modeling parameters as draws from a hyperparameter-governed distribution. However, theoretical guarantees for these estimates as the system size grows have been lacking. A critical concern is that hyperparameter estimation may diverge for larger networks, undermining the model's reliability. Formulating the system's evolution in a measure transport perspective, we propose a theoretical framework for estimating hyperparameters with mean-type observations, which are prevalent in many scientific applications. Our primary contribution is a nonasymptotic bound for the deviation of estimate of hyperparameters in inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems with respect to network population size, which is established for a general family of optimization algorithms within a fixed observation duration. While we firstly establish a consistency result for systems with independent nodes, our main result extends this guarantee to the more challenging and realistic setting of weakly-dependent nodes. We validate our theoretical findings with numerical experiments on two representative models: a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model and a Spiking Neuronal Network model. In both cases, the results confirm that the estimation error decreases as the network population size increases, aligning with our theoretical guarantees. This research proposes the foundational theory to ensure that hierarchical Bayesian methods are statistically consistent for large-scale inhomogeneous systems, filling a gap in this area of theoretical research and justifying their application in practice.