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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Finite-Sample Bounds for Expected Signature Estimation un...
Bryson Schenck · 2026-05-20 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

The expected signature uniquely determines the law of a random rough path under a moment-growth condition, yet finite-sample bounds for estimating it from a single long dependent trajectory have been lacking. We study a stationary stochastic process whose sample paths can be interpreted as geometric rough paths, partitioned into blocks of equally-spaced observations, and prove a non-asymptotic mean-squared error bound for the block-averaging estimator. Rough-path theory is required for the estimand to be well-defined when paths have Hölder regularity at most $1/2$, because Young and Riemann--Stieltjes integration cannot define the signature's iterated integrals. Under moment and stationarity assumptions together with a covariance-decay condition on block signatures -- strictly weaker than $α$-mixing and applicable to long-range-dependent drivers -- the error separates into a discretization term and a fluctuation term, with rates determined respectively by path regularity and dependence strength. A level-wise rough-factorial variance analysis keeps finite-truncation constants explicit and yields an optimal allocation rule under a fixed observation budget. We verify the assumptions for fractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes in three regimes, namely rough (Hurst $H<1/2$), semimartingale ($H=1/2$), and long-range ($H>1/2$). Monte Carlo experiments show empirical convergence rates faster than the theoretical upper bounds.