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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning 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Statistical Inference for Linear Functionals of Online Least-squares SGD when $t \gtrsim d^{1+δ}$
Bhavya Agrawalla, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian, Promit Ghosal · 2025-10-23 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) has become a cornerstone method in modern data science. However, deploying SGD in high-stakes applications necessitates rigorous quantification of its inherent uncertainty. In this work, we establish \emph{non-asymptotic Berry--Esseen bounds} for linear functionals of online least-squares SGD, thereby providing a Gaussian Central Limit Theorem (CLT) in a \emph{growing-dimensional regime}. Existing approaches to high-dimensional inference for projection parameters, such as~\cite{chang2023inference}, rely on inverting empirical covariance matrices and require at least $t \gtrsim d^{3/2}$ iterations to achieve finite-sample Berry--Esseen guarantees, rendering them computationally expensive and restrictive in the allowable dimensional scaling. In contrast, we show that a CLT holds for SGD iterates when the number of iterations grows as $t \gtrsim d^{1+δ}$ for any $δ> 0$, significantly extending the dimensional regime permitted by prior works while improving computational efficiency. The proposed online SGD-based procedure operates in $\mathcal{O}(td)$ time and requires only $\mathcal{O}(d)$ memory, in contrast to the $\mathcal{O}(td^2 + d^3)$ runtime of covariance-inversion methods. To render the theory practically applicable, we further develop an \emph{online variance estimator} for the asymptotic variance appearing in the CLT and establish \emph{high-probability deviation bounds} for this estimator. Collectively, these results yield the first fully online and data-driven framework for constructing confidence intervals for SGD iterates in the near-optimal scaling regime $t \gtrsim d^{1+δ}$.