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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Tighter Confidence Intervals under Without Replacement Sa...
Shubhanshu Shekhar, Aaditya Ramdas · 2026-03-15 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the population mean of $N$ values $\{x_1, \ldots, x_N\} \subset Σ^N$ based on a random sample of size $n$, denoted by $X^n \equiv (X_1, \ldots, X_n)$, drawn uniformly without replacement (WoR). We begin by focusing on the finite alphabet ($|Σ| = k <\infty$) and moderate accuracy ($\log(1/α_N) \gg (k+1)\log N$) regime, and derive a fundamental lower bound on the width of any level-$(1-α_N)$ CI in terms of the inverse of the WoR rate functions from the theory of large deviations. Guided by this lower bound, we propose a new level-$(1-α_N)$ CI using an empirical inverse rate function, and show that in certain asymptotic regimes the width of this CI matches the lower bound up to constants. We also derive a dual formulation of the inverse rate function that enables efficient computation of our proposed CI. We then move beyond the finite alphabet case and use a Bernoulli coupling idea to construct an almost sure CI for $Σ= [0,1]$, and a conceptually simple nonasymptotic CI for the case of $Σ$ being a $(2,D)$ smooth Banach space. For both finite and general alphabets, our results employ classical large deviation techniques in novel ways, thus establishing new connections between estimation under WoR sampling and the theory of large deviations.