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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
An Exponential Averaging Process with Strong Convergence ...
Frederik Köhne, Anton Schiela · 2025-05-16 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Averaging, or smoothing, is a fundamental approach to obtain stable, de-noised estimates from noisy observations. In certain scenarios, observations made along trajectories of random dynamical systems are of particular interest. One popular smoothing technique for such a scenario is exponential moving averaging (EMA), which assigns observations a weight that decreases exponentially in their age, thus giving younger observations a larger weight. However, EMA fails to enjoy strong stochastic convergence properties, which stems from the fact that the weight assigned to the youngest observation is constant over time, preventing the noise in the averaged quantity from decreasing to zero. In this work, we consider an adaptation to EMA, which we call $p$-EMA, where the weights assigned to the last observations decrease to zero at a subharmonic rate. We provide stochastic convergence guarantees for this kind of averaging under mild assumptions on the autocorrelations of the underlying random dynamical system. We further discuss the implications of our results for a recently introduced adaptive step size control for Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), which uses $p$-EMA for averaging noisy observations.