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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Nearly Consistent Finite Particle Estimates in Streaming ...
Alec Koppel, Amrit Singh Bedi, Brian M. Sadler, Victor Elvira · 2019-09-23 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is usually required. {Importance sampling is a standard MC tool that approximates this unavailable distribution with a set of weighted samples.} This procedure is asymptotically consistent as the number of MC samples (particles) go to infinity. However, retaining infinitely many particles is intractable. Thus, we propose a way to only keep a \emph{finite representative subset} of particles and their augmented importance weights that is \emph{nearly consistent}. To do so in {an online manner}, we (1) embed the posterior density estimate in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) through its kernel mean embedding; and (2) sequentially project this RKHS element onto a lower-dimensional subspace in RKHS using the maximum mean discrepancy, an integral probability metric. Theoretically, we establish that this scheme results in a bias determined by a compression parameter, which yields a tunable tradeoff between consistency and memory. In experiments, we observe the compressed estimates achieve comparable performance to the dense ones with substantial reductions in representational complexity.