惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
A
About on SuperTechFans
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
IT之家
IT之家
罗磊的独立博客
博客园_首页
月光博客
月光博客
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
量子位
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
G
Google Developers Blog
博客园 - 叶小钗
H
Help Net Security
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
B
Blog
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
V
V2EX
Vercel News
Vercel News
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
A Derivation of the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula in Baseball
Steven J. Miller · 2005-09-29 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

It has been noted that in many professional sports leagues a good predictor of a team's won-loss percentage is Bill James' Pythagorean Formula RSobs^c / (RSobs^c + RAobs^c), where RSobs (resp. RAobs) is the observed average number of runs scored (allowed) per game and c is a constant for the league; for baseball the best agreement is when c is about 1.82. We provide a theoretical justification for this formula and value of c by modelling the number of runs scored and allowed in baseball games as independent random variables drawn from Weibull distributions with the same b and c but different a; the probability density f(x;a,b,c) is 0 for x < b and is (c/a) ((x-b)/a)^{c-1} exp(-((x-b)/a)^c) otherwise. This model leads to a predicted won-loss percentage of (RS-b)^c / ((RS-b)^c + (RA-b)^c); here RS (resp. RA) is the mean of the random variable corresponding to runs scored (allowed), and RS - b (resp. RA - b) is an estimator of RSobs (resp. RAobs). An analysis of the 14 American League teams from the 2004 baseball season shows that (1) given that the runs scored and allowed in a game cannot be equal, the runs scored and allowed are statistically independent; (2) the best fit Weibull parameters attained from a least squares or a maximum likelihood analysis give good fits; least squares gives a mean value of c of 1.79 with a standard deviation of .09, and maximum likelihood gives a mean value of c of 1.74 with a standard deviation of .06, which agree beautifully with the observed best value of 1.82 attained by fitting RSobs^c / (RSobs^c + RAobs^c) to the observed winning percentages.