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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Autoregressive Functions Estimation in Nonlinear Bifurcat...
2015-06-05 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Bifurcating autoregressive processes, which can be seen as an adaptation of au-toregressive processes for a binary tree structure, have been extensively studied during the last decade in a parametric context. In this work we do not specify any a priori form for the two autoregressive functions and we use nonparametric techniques. We investigate both nonasymp-totic and asymptotic behavior of the Nadaraya-Watson type estimators of the autoregressive functions. We build our estimators observing the process on a finite subtree denoted by Tn, up to the depth n. Estimators achieve the classical rate |Tn| --$β$/(2$β$+1) in quadratic loss over H{ö}lder classes of smoothness. We prove almost sure convergence, asymptotic normality giving the bias expression when choosing the optimal bandwidth and a moderate deviations principle. Our proofs rely on specific techniques used to study bifurcating Markov chains. Finally, we address the question of asymmetry and develop an asymptotic test for the equality of the two autoregressive functions.