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On the Validity of the Assumptions of the classical Coupo...
2016-03-10 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

The solution of the classical Coupon Collector's Problem is based on the assumptions that all stickers are independently and uniformly distributed. We can prove statistically as well as analytically that in particular the assumption of independence is not fulfilled in the field. To achieve this result we have systematically modeled and analyzed the production process of the stickers by combinatorial methods. We have also derived measures for the deviation from independence. Thus the results for the classical Coupon Collector's Problem are not valid for practical applications anymore, but we can show that they constitute an a upper bound. This means in particular that in practice the deviation is advantageous for the collectors, not a fraud of the vendors. ------ Im klassischen Sammelbilderproblem wird angenommen, dass die Sammelbilder gleichverteilt und unabhängig sind, d. h. alle Bilder kommen gleich häufig vor und werden zufällig auf die Päckchen verteilt. Wir können sowohl statistisch als auch analytisch nachweisen, dass insbesondere die Annahme der Zufälligkeit bzw. Unabhängigkeit in der Praxis nicht erfüllt ist. Dazu haben wir den Herstellungsprozess der Sammelbilder systematisch mit kombinatorischen Methoden untersucht. Wir können auch Maße dafür angeben, wie groß die Abweichung vom Zufall ist. Damit sind die Ergebnisse des klassischen Sammelbildermodells in der Praxis nicht mehr gültig, aber wir können zeigen, dass sie eine Abschätzung nach oben darstellen. Dies bedeutet insbesondere, dass kein Betrug durch den Hersteller vorliegt, sondern vielmehr eine Bevorteilung der Sammler.