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Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for primes in short intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Multilevel branching splitting algorithm for estimating r...
2016-02-09 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

We analyse the splitting algorithm performance in the estimation of rare event probabilities and this in a discrete multidimensional framework. For this we assume that each threshold is partitioned into disjoint subsets and the probability for a particle to reach the next threshold will depend on the starting subset. A straightforward estimator of the rare event probability is given by the proportion of simulated particles for which the rare event occurs. The variance of this estimator we get is the sum of two parts: one part resuming the variability due to each threshold and a second part resuming the variability due to the thresholds number. This decomposition is analogous to that of the continuous case. The optimal algorithm is then derived by cancelling the first term leading to optimal thresholds. Then we compare this variance with that of the algorithm in which one of the threshold has been deleted. Finally, we investigate the sensitivity of the variance of the estimator with respect to a shape deformation of an optimal threshold. As an example, we consider a two-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with conformal maps for shape deformation.