惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
V
Visual Studio Blog
IT之家
IT之家
博客园 - 聂微东
The Cloudflare Blog
月光博客
月光博客
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
爱范儿
爱范儿
H
Help Net Security
博客园 - 叶小钗
V
V2EX
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
J
Java Code Geeks
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
博客园_首页
C
Check Point Blog
B
Blog
D
DataBreaches.Net
美团技术团队
罗磊的独立博客

math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for primes in short intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Stochastic Models and Estimation of Undetected Infections...
Lillian Achola Oluoch, Florent Ouabo Kamkumo, Ralf Wunderlich · 2025-11-02 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Zika fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease with potential severe neurological complications and birth defects, remains a significant public health concern. The epidemiological models often oversimplify the dynamics of Zika transmission by assuming immediate detection of all infected cases. This study provides an enhanced SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model to incorporate partial information by distinguishing between detected and undetected Zika infections (also known as "dark figures"). By distinguishing the compartments, the model captures the complexities of disease spread by accounting for uncertainties about transmission and the number of undetected infections. This model implements the Kalman filter technique to estimate the hidden states from the observed states. Numerical simulations were performed to understand the dynamics of Zika transmission and real-world data was utilized for parameterization and validation of the model. The study aims to provide information on the impact of undetected Zika infections on disease spread within the population, which will contribute to evidence-based decision making in public health policy and practice.