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Complement Submodular Information Measures for Balanced and Robust Data Selection A Proof of a Conjecture on Positive and Negative Square Energies of Unicyclic Graphs Laplacian Spectrum of the Weakly Zero-Divisor Graph of a Finite Commutative Ring An identity for second Eulerian numbers via lattice-point counting $t$-tone edge coloring of graphs Constructing Maximal Bumpless Pipedreams for Double Grothendieck Polynomials Mubayi's Polynomial-Ideal Conjecture and Cover-Ideal Turán Methods Implicit Binarization via Complex Phase Dynamics in Combinatorial Optimization The limits of Schur multipliers in Pólya conversion problems for the $q$-permanent function Universality theorems for generalized splines Framing Triangulations for Arbitrary Integer Flow Polytopes On the Common Generalization of Gentle Algebras and Framed Directed Acyclic Graphs The complexity of frugal digraph homomorphisms Chaotic and periodic behavior of jeu de taquin on infinite Young tableaux Enumerating Pattern Avoiding Parking Functions Incidence toric ideals and three-point functions Unique Winning Opening Move in Three-Row Chomp Strong majority colorings of graphs A Balancing Theorem for Spanning Trees of Rectangular Grid Graphs Spectral radius and edge-disjoint connected factors of graphs New invariants for rank metric codes, with applications to the classification of rank two semifields of order 256 Flexible DP-4-coloring of planar graphs without 4-cycles and intersecting triangles Balanced intersection size distributions in projective planes List Reconstruction Problem with List Size Two Is Dimensionality a Barrier for Retrieval Models? The INIEP: Irreducible and Positive Realizations The number of Pfaffian orientations on punctured polygonally cellulated surfaces Explicit Construction of Polytopes whose Ehrhart Polynomials Realize any Given Sign Pattern Finite-state enumeration of adjacency-constrained 132-avoiding permutations AMDS and quantum AMDS Constacyclic codes of length $4p^ς$ over $\mathbb{F}_{{p}^{m}}$
Upper tails for homomorphism counts in sparse random hype...
Nicholas A. Cook, Nguyen Nguyen · 2025-10-01 · via math.CO updates on arXiv.org

The "infamous upper tail problem" for $r$-uniform hypergraphs is to estimate the probability that the number of copies of a fixed hypergraph $H$ in a large binomial $r$-uniform hypergraph $\boldsymbol{G}$ exceeds its expectation by a constant factor. The problem was popularized by Janson and Ruciński and, particularly in the case of graphs ($r=2$), has been a driving example in the development of nonlinear large deviations theory. Recent work of the first author with Dembo and Pham has accomplished the \emph{naive mean-field reduction step}, reducing the upper tail problem to an entropic variational problem on a space of weighted graphs. The latter was resolved for counts of $r$-uniform cliques and a certain linear 3-uniform hypergraph by Liu and Zhao, who also conjectured a general formula. We confirm their conjecture for other classes of hypergraphs, including complete $r$-partite $r$-graphs, tight cycles, and the Fano plane. We also prove a general large deviation upper bound for counts of $r$-graphs $H$ satisfying certain edge covering properties.