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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Bayesian Inference and Learning in Nonlinear Dynamical Sy...
Björn Volkmann, Jan-Hendrik Ewering, Michael Meindl, Simon F. G. · 2025-08-21 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Accuracy and generalization capabilities are key objectives when learning dynamical system models. To obtain such models from limited data, current works exploit prior knowledge and assumptions about the system. However, the fusion of diverse prior knowledge, e. g. partially known system equations and smoothness assumptions about unknown model parts, with information contained in the data remains a challenging problem, especially in input-output settings with latent system state. In particular, learning functions that are nested inside known system equations can be a laborious and error-prone expert task. This paper considers inference of latent states and learning of unknown model parts for fusion of data information with different sources of prior knowledge. The main contribution is a general-purpose system identification tool that, for the first time, provides a consistent solution for both, online and offline Bayesian inference and learning while allowing to incorporate explicit and implicit prior system knowledge. We propose a novel interface for combining known dynamics functions with a learning-based approximation of unknown system parts. Based on the proposed model structure, closed-form densities for efficient parameter marginalization are derived. No user-tailored coordinate transformations or model inversions are needed, making the presented framework a general-purpose tool for inference and learning. The broad applicability of the devised framework is illustrated in three distinct case studies, including an experimental data set.