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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Efficient implementations of echo state network cross-val...
Mantas Lukoševičius, Arnas Uselis · 2020-06-19 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Background/introduction: Cross-Validation (CV) is still uncommon in time series modeling. Echo State Networks (ESNs), as a prime example of Reservoir Computing (RC) models, are known for their fast and precise one-shot learning, that often benefit from good hyper-parameter tuning. This makes them ideal to change the status quo. Methods: We discuss CV of time series for predicting a concrete time interval of interest, suggest several schemes for cross-validating ESNs and introduce an efficient algorithm for implementing them. This algorithm is presented as two levels of optimizations of doing $k$-fold CV. Training an RC model typically consists of two stages: (i) running the reservoir with the data and (ii) computing the optimal readouts. The first level of our optimization addresses the most computationally expensive part (i) and makes it remain constant irrespective of $k$. It dramatically reduces reservoir computations in any type of RC system and is enough if $k$ is small. The second level of optimization also makes the (ii) part remain constant irrespective of large $k$, as long as the dimension of the output is low. We discuss when the proposed validation schemes for ESNs could be beneficial, three options for producing the final model and empirically investigate them on six different real-world datasets, as well as do empirical computation time experiments. We provide the code in an online repository. Results: Proposed CV schemes give better and more stable test performance in all the six different real-world datasets, three task types. Empirical run times confirm our complexity analysis. Conclusions: In most situations $k$-fold CV of ESNs and many other RC models can be done for virtually the same time and space complexity as a simple single-split validation. This enables CV to become a standard practice in RC.