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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Learning from Neighbors with PHIBP: Predicting Infectious...
Edwin Fong, Lancelot F. James, Juho Lee · 2025-12-24 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Modeling sparse count data, which arise across numerous scientific fields, presents significant statistical challenges. This chapter addresses these challenges in the context of infectious disease prediction, with a focus on predicting outbreaks in geographic regions that have historically reported zero cases. To this end, we present the detailed computational framework and experimental application of the Poisson Hierarchical Indian Buffet Process (PHIBP), with demonstrated success in handling sparse count data in microbiome and ecological studies. The PHIBP's architecture, grounded in the concept of absolute abundance, systematically borrows statistical strength from related regions and circumvents the known sensitivities of relative-rate methods to zero counts. Through a series of experiments on infectious disease data, we show that this principled approach provides a robust foundation for generating coherent predictive distributions and for the effective use of comparative measures such as alpha and beta diversity. The chapter's emphasis on algorithmic implementation and experimental results confirms that this unified framework delivers both accurate outbreak predictions and meaningful epidemiological insights in data-sparse settings.