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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Crop Yield Prediction Integrating Genotype and Weather Va...
Johnathon Shook, Tryambak Gangopadhyay, Linjiang Wu, Baskar Gana · 2020-06-25 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Accurate prediction of crop yield supported by scientific and domain-relevant insights, can help improve agricultural breeding, provide monitoring across diverse climatic conditions and thereby protect against climatic challenges to crop production including erratic rainfall and temperature variations. We used historical performance records from Uniform Soybean Tests (UST) in North America spanning 13 years of data to build a Long Short Term Memory - Recurrent Neural Network based model to dissect and predict genotype response in multiple-environments by leveraging pedigree relatedness measures along with weekly weather parameters. Additionally, for providing explainability of the important time-windows in the growing season, we developed a model based on temporal attention mechanism. The combination of these two models outperformed random forest (RF), LASSO regression and the data-driven USDA model for yield prediction. We deployed this deep learning framework as a 'hypotheses generation tool' to unravel GxExM relationships. Attention-based time series models provide a significant advancement in interpretability of yield prediction models. The insights provided by explainable models are applicable in understanding how plant breeding programs can adapt their approaches for global climate change, for example identification of superior varieties for commercial release, intelligent sampling of testing environments in variety development, and integrating weather parameters for a targeted breeding approach. Using DL models as hypothesis generation tools will enable development of varieties with plasticity response in variable climatic conditions. We envision broad applicability of this approach (via conducting sensitivity analysis and "what-if" scenarios) for soybean and other crop species under different climatic conditions.