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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

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From Chain-Ladder to Individual Claims Reserving
Ronald Richman, Mario V. Wüthrich · 2026-02-17 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The chain-ladder (CL) method is the most widely used claims reserving technique in non-life insurance. This manuscript introduces a novel approach to computing the CL reserves based on a fundamental restructuring of the data utilization for the CL prediction procedure. Instead of rolling forward the cumulative claims with estimated CL factors, we estimate multi-period factors that project the latest observations directly to the ultimate claims. This alternative perspective on CL reserving creates a natural pathway for the application of machine learning techniques to individual claims reserving. As a proof of concept, we present a small-scale real data application employing neural networks for individual claims reserving.