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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Masking Causality and Conditional Dependence
Zou Yang, Sophia Xiao, Bijan Mazaheri · 2026-03-07 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Many regulatory and analytic problems require that a prohibited variable influence a decision only through a designated allowable channel -- a conditional-independence requirement that arises in path-specific fairness, the handling of classified information, and the regulation of trading on non-public information, among other settings. Such requirements may be enforced either stratum-by-stratum or, more commonly (and more efficiently), through a single averaged constraint on the conditional effect. We study the resulting enforcement problem from two perspectives. From the regulator's side, we formulate causal masking as a linear program and show that averaged-constraint optimization almost surely produces policies that violate the stratum-wise requirement while satisfying the averaged one exactly. The gains from masking grow with confounding and outcome heterogeneity, and detection requires precisely the conditional-independence tests that average constraints aim to avoid. From the optimizer's side, the same construction shows that masked policies recover most of the reward of unconstrained exploitation while being far harder to detect, making them attractive in any setting where the basis of decisions is itself sensitive. Together, these results argue that regulating direct dependence through averaged statistics on observed decisions is structurally limited, and that meaningful enforcement must operate at the level of the decision rule itself.