惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
罗磊的独立博客
腾讯CDC
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
月光博客
月光博客
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
U
Unit 42
I
InfoQ
D
DataBreaches.Net
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
V
V2EX
美团技术团队
IT之家
IT之家
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
F
Fortinet All Blogs
GbyAI
GbyAI
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Curse of Small Sample Size in Forecasting of the Active C...
Mert Nakıp, Onur Çopur, Cüneyt Güzeliş · 2020-11-07 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a massive number of attempts on the predictions of the number of cases and the other future trends of this pandemic have been made. However, they fail to predict, in a reliable way, the medium and long term evolution of fundamental features of COVID-19 outbreak within acceptable accuracy. This paper gives an explanation for the failure of machine learning models in this particular forecasting problem. The paper shows that simple linear regression models provide high prediction accuracy values reliably but only for a 2-weeks period and that relatively complex machine learning models, which have the potential of learning long term predictions with low errors, cannot achieve to obtain good predictions with possessing a high generalization ability. It is suggested in the paper that the lack of a sufficient number of samples is the source of low prediction performance of the forecasting models. The reliability of the forecasting results about the active cases is measured in terms of the cross-validation prediction errors, which are used as expectations for the generalization errors of the forecasters. To exploit the information, which is of most relevant with the active cases, we perform feature selection over a variety of variables. We apply different feature selection methods, namely the Pairwise Correlation, Recursive Feature Selection, and feature selection by using the Lasso regression and compare them to each other and also with the models not employing any feature selection. Furthermore, we compare Linear Regression, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Long-Short Term Memory models each of which is used for prediction active cases together with the mentioned feature selection methods. Our results show that the accurate forecasting of the active cases with high generalization ability is possible up to 3 days only because of the small sample size of COVID-19 data.