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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Adversarial Attacks on Downstream Weather Forecasting Mod...
Yue Deng, Francisco Santos, Pang-Ning Tan, Lifeng Luo · 2025-10-11 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Deep learning-based weather forecasting (DLWF) models leverage past weather observations to generate future forecasts, supporting a wide range of downstream applications, including tropical cyclone (TC) prediction. In this paper, we investigate their vulnerability to adversarial attacks, where subtle perturbations to the upstream forecasts can alter the downstream TC trajectory predictions. Although research into adversarial attacks on DLWF models has grown recently, it remains challenging to craft perturbed upstream forecasts that steer the downstream outputs toward attacker-specified trajectories. First, conventional TC detection systems are opaque, non-differentiable black boxes, making standard gradient-based attacks infeasible. Second, the extreme rarity of TC events leads to severe class imbalance problem, making it difficult to develop attack methods for perturbing upstream forecasts that produce realistic-looking cyclone paths aligned with attacker's target trajectories. To overcome these limitations, we propose Cyc-Attack, a novel method for perturbing the upstream forecasts of DLWF models to generate adversarial trajectories. The proposed method uses a differentiable surrogate model to approximate the TC detector's output, enabling the application of gradient-based attacks. Cyc-Attack also employs a skewness-aware loss function with kernel dilation strategy to address the imbalance problem. Finally, a distance-based gradient weighting scheme and regularization are used to constrain the perturbations and eliminate unrealistic-looking trajectories, thereby making the adversarial upstream forecasts less easily detectable. Our experiments show that Cyc-Attack achieves a higher true positive rate in matching the attacker's target trajectories, along with lower false alarm rates and stealthier perturbations than conventional attack methods.