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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Bayesian Neural Networks for Virtual Flow Metering: An Em...
Bjarne Grimstad, Mathilde Hotvedt, Anders T. Sandnes, Odd Kolbjø · 2021-02-02 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Recent works have presented promising results from the application of machine learning (ML) to the modeling of flow rates in oil and gas wells. Encouraging results and advantageous properties of ML models, such as computationally cheap evaluation and ease of calibration to new data, have sparked optimism for the development of data-driven virtual flow meters (VFMs). Data-driven VFMs are developed in the small data regime, where it is important to question the uncertainty and robustness of models. The modeling of uncertainty may help to build trust in models, which is a prerequisite for industrial applications. The contribution of this paper is the introduction of a probabilistic VFM based on Bayesian neural networks. Uncertainty in the model and measurements is described, and the paper shows how to perform approximate Bayesian inference using variational inference. The method is studied by modeling on a large and heterogeneous dataset, consisting of 60 wells across five different oil and gas assets. The predictive performance is analyzed on historical and future test data, where an average error of 4-6% and 8-13% is achieved for the 50% best performing models, respectively. Variational inference appears to provide more robust predictions than the reference approach on future data. Prediction performance and uncertainty calibration is explored in detail and discussed in light of four data challenges. The findings motivate the development of alternative strategies to improve the robustness of data-driven VFMs.