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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Design and Evaluation of Personalized Free Trials
Hema Yoganarasimhan, Ebrahim Barzegary, Abhishek Pani · 2020-06-24 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Free trial promotions, where users are given a limited time to try the product for free, are a commonly used customer acquisition strategy in the Software as a Service (SaaS) industry. We examine how trial length affect users' responsiveness, and seek to quantify the gains from personalizing the length of the free trial promotions. Our data come from a large-scale field experiment conducted by a leading SaaS firm, where new users were randomly assigned to 7, 14, or 30 days of free trial. First, we show that the 7-day trial to all consumers is the best uniform policy, with a 5.59% increase in subscriptions. Next, we develop a three-pronged framework for personalized policy design and evaluation. Using our framework, we develop seven personalized targeting policies based on linear regression, lasso, CART, random forest, XGBoost, causal tree, and causal forest, and evaluate their performances using the Inverse Propensity Score (IPS) estimator. We find that the personalized policy based on lasso performs the best, followed by the one based on XGBoost. In contrast, policies based on causal tree and causal forest perform poorly. We then link a method's effectiveness in designing policy with its ability to personalize the treatment sufficiently without over-fitting (i.e., capture spurious heterogeneity). Next, we segment consumers based on their optimal trial length and derive some substantive insights on the drivers of user behavior in this context. Finally, we show that policies designed to maximize short-run conversions also perform well on long-run outcomes such as consumer loyalty and profitability.