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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Decomposition-Based Modular Conformal Prediction for Two-...
William Zhang, Saurabh Amin, Georgia Perakis · 2025-10-06 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Conformal prediction offers finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions. However, existing methods treat the entire modeling process as a black box, overlooking opportunities to exploit and understand modular structure. We introduce a conformal prediction framework for two-stage sequential models, where an upstream predictor generates intermediate representations for a downstream model. By decomposing the overall prediction residual into stage-specific components, our method enables practitioners to attribute uncertainty to specific pipeline stages. We develop a risk-controlled parameter selection procedure using family-wise error rate (FWER) control to calibrate stage-wise scaling parameters, and introduce an adaptive extension for non-stationary settings. Experiments on synthetic distribution shifts, as well as real-world supply chain and stock market data, demonstrate that our approach improves coverage under structural, stage-wise shifts compared to standard conformal methods, while identifying stage-wise error contribution. This framework offers diagnostic advantages and robust coverage that standard conformal methods lack.