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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Online Continual Learning for Time Series: a Natural Scor...
Edoardo Urettini, Daniele Atzeni, Ioanna-Yvonni Tsaknaki, Antoni · 2026-01-19 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Online continual learning (OCL) methods adapt to changing environments without forgetting past knowledge. Similarly, online time series forecasting (OTSF) is a real-world problem where data evolve in time and success depends on both rapid adaptation and long-term memory. Indeed, time-varying and regime-switching forecasting models have been extensively studied, offering a strong justification for the use of OCL in these settings. Building on recent work that applies OCL to OTSF, this paper aims to strengthen the theoretical and practical connections between time series methods and OCL. First, we reframe neural network optimization as a parameter filtering problem, showing that natural gradient descent is a score-driven method and proving its information-theoretic optimality. Then, we show that using a Student's t likelihood in addition to natural gradient induces a bounded update, which improves robustness to outliers. Finally, we introduce Natural Score-driven Replay (NatSR), which combines our robust optimizer with a replay buffer and a dynamic scale heuristic that improves fast adaptation at regime drifts. Empirical results demonstrate that NatSR achieves stronger forecasting performance than more complex state-of-the-art methods.