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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
The Value of Information in Resource-Constrained Pricing
Ruicheng Ao, Jiashuo Jiang, David Simchi-Levi · 2026-03-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Firms that price perishable resources -- airline seats, hotel rooms, seasonal inventory -- now routinely use demand predictions, but these predictions vary widely in quality. Under hard capacity constraints, acting on an inaccurate prediction can irreversibly deplete inventory needed for future periods. We study how prediction uncertainty propagates into dynamic pricing decisions with linear demand, stochastic noise, and finite capacity. A certified demand forecast with known error bound~$ε^0$ specifies where the system should operate: it shifts regret from $O(\sqrt{T})$ to $O(\log T)$ when $ε^0 \lesssim T^{-1/4}$, and we prove this threshold is tight. A misspecified surrogate model -- biased but correlated with true demand -- cannot set prices directly but reduces learning variance by a factor of $(1-ρ^2)$ through control variates. The two mechanisms compose: the forecast determines the regret regime; the surrogate tightens estimation within it. All algorithms rest on a boundary attraction mechanism that stabilizes pricing near degenerate capacity boundaries without requiring non-degeneracy assumptions. Experiments confirm the phase transition threshold, the variance reduction from surrogates, and robustness across problem instances.