惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

J
Java Code Geeks
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
GbyAI
GbyAI
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
腾讯CDC
U
Unit 42
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
小众软件
小众软件
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
博客园 - Franky
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
A
About on SuperTechFans
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
D
Docker
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Signature Kernel Scoring Rule: A Spatio-Temporal Diagnost...
Archer Dodson, Ritabrata Dutta · 2025-10-22 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Modern weather forecasting has increasingly transitioned from numerical weather prediction (NWP) to data-driven machine learning forecasting techniques. While these new models produce probabilistic forecasts to quantify uncertainty, their training and evaluation may remain hindered by conventional scoring rules, primarily MSE, which are designed for single time point predictions and ignore the highly correlated data structures present in weather behaviour. This work introduces the signature kernel scoring rule to the domain of weather forecasting, which reframes weather variables as continuous paths to encode temporal and spatial dependencies through iterated integrals. Validated as strictly proper through the use of path augmentations to guarantee uniqueness, the signature kernel provides a theoretically robust metric for forecast verification and model training. Empirical evaluations through weather scorecards on WeatherBench 2 models demonstrate the signature kernel scoring rule's high discriminative power and unique capacity to capture path-dependent interactions. Following previous demonstration of successful adversarial-free probabilistic training, we train sliding window generative neural networks using a predictive-sequential scoring rule on ERA5 reanalysis weather data. Using a lightweight model, we demonstrate that signature kernel based training outperforms climatology for forecast paths of up to fifteen timesteps.