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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Learning Counterfactual Distributions via Kernel Nearest ...
Kyuseong Choi, Jacob Feitelberg, Caleb Chin, Anish Agarwal, Raaz · 2024-10-17 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Consider a setting with multiple units (e.g., individuals, cohorts, geographic locations) and outcomes (e.g., treatments, times, items), where the goal is to learn a multivariate distribution for each unit-outcome entry, such as the distribution of a user's weekly spend and engagement under a specific mobile app version. A common challenge is the prevalence of missing not at random data, where observations are available only for certain unit-outcome combinations and the observation availability can be correlated with the properties of distributions themselves, i.e., there is unobserved confounding. An additional challenge is that for any observed unit-outcome entry, we only have a finite number of samples from the underlying distribution. We tackle these two challenges by casting the problem into a novel distributional matrix completion framework and introduce a kernel based distributional generalization of nearest neighbors to estimate the underlying distributions. By leveraging maximum mean discrepancies and a suitable factor model on the kernel mean embeddings of the underlying distributions, we establish consistent recovery of the underlying distributions even when data is missing not at random and positivity constraints are violated. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our nearest neighbors approach is robust to heteroscedastic noise, provided we have access to two or more measurements for the observed unit-outcome entries, a robustness not present in prior works on nearest neighbors with single measurements.