惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

V
Visual Studio Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
G
Google Developers Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
L
LangChain Blog
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
J
Java Code Geeks
Y
Y Combinator Blog
月光博客
月光博客
雷峰网
雷峰网
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
F
Fortinet All Blogs
A
About on SuperTechFans
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
P
Proofpoint News Feed
小众软件
小众软件
H
Help Net Security
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
B
Blog RSS Feed
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
博客园 - 叶小钗
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Regression modelling of spatiotemporal extreme U.S. wildf...
Jordan Richards, Raphaël Huser · 2022-08-16 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Risk management in many environmental settings requires an understanding of the mechanisms that drive extreme events. Useful metrics for quantifying such risk are extreme quantiles of response variables conditioned on predictor variables that describe, e.g., climate, biosphere and environmental states. Typically these quantiles lie outside the range of observable data and so, for estimation, require specification of parametric extreme value models within a regression framework. Classical approaches in this context utilise linear or additive relationships between predictor and response variables and suffer in either their predictive capabilities or computational efficiency; moreover, their simplicity is unlikely to capture the truly complex structures that lead to the creation of extreme wildfires. In this paper, we propose a new methodological framework for performing extreme quantile regression using artificial neutral networks, which are able to capture complex non-linear relationships and scale well to high-dimensional data. The "black box" nature of neural networks means that they lack the desirable trait of interpretability often favoured by practitioners; thus, we unify linear, and additive, regression methodology with deep learning to create partially-interpretable neural networks that can be used for statistical inference but retain high prediction accuracy. To complement this methodology, we further propose a novel point process model for extreme values which overcomes the finite lower-endpoint problem associated with the generalised extreme value class of distributions. Efficacy of our unified framework is illustrated on U.S. wildfire data with a high-dimensional predictor set and we illustrate vast improvements in predictive performance over linear and spline-based regression techniques.