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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Risk Bounds and Calibration for a Smart Predict-then-Opti...
Heyuan Liu, Paul Grigas · 2021-08-20 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The predict-then-optimize framework is fundamental in practical stochastic decision-making problems: first predict unknown parameters of an optimization model, then solve the problem using the predicted values. A natural loss function in this setting is defined by measuring the decision error induced by the predicted parameters, which was named the Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) loss by Elmachtoub and Grigas [arXiv:1710.08005]. Since the SPO loss is typically nonconvex and possibly discontinuous, Elmachtoub and Grigas [arXiv:1710.08005] introduced a convex surrogate, called the SPO+ loss, that importantly accounts for the underlying structure of the optimization model. In this paper, we greatly expand upon the consistency results for the SPO+ loss provided by Elmachtoub and Grigas [arXiv:1710.08005]. We develop risk bounds and uniform calibration results for the SPO+ loss relative to the SPO loss, which provide a quantitative way to transfer the excess surrogate risk to excess true risk. By combining our risk bounds with generalization bounds, we show that the empirical minimizer of the SPO+ loss achieves low excess true risk with high probability. We first demonstrate these results in the case when the feasible region of the underlying optimization problem is a polyhedron, and then we show that the results can be strengthened substantially when the feasible region is a level set of a strongly convex function. We perform experiments to empirically demonstrate the strength of the SPO+ surrogate, as compared to standard $\ell_1$ and squared $\ell_2$ prediction error losses, on portfolio allocation and cost-sensitive multi-class classification problems.