Graph neural networks (GNNs) work remarkably well in semi-supervised node regression, yet a rigorous theory explaining when and why they succeed remains lacking. To address this gap, we study an aggregate-and-readout model that encompasses several common message passing architectures: node features are first propagated over the graph then mapped to responses via a nonlinear function. For least-squares estimation over GNNs with linear graph convolutions and a deep ReLU readout, we prove a sharp non-asymptotic risk bound that separates approximation, stochastic, and optimization errors. The bound makes explicit how performance scales with the fraction of labeled nodes and graph-induced dependence. Approximation guarantees are further derived for graph-smoothing followed by smooth nonlinear readouts, yielding convergence rates that recover classical nonparametric behavior under full supervision while characterizing performance when labels are scarce. Numerical experiments validate our theory, providing a systematic framework for understanding GNN performance and limitations.