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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
An Efficient and Generalizable Symbolic Regression Method...
Yi Xie, Tianyu Qiu, Yun Xiong, Xiuqi Huang, Xiaofeng Gao, Chao C · 2024-09-06 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Time series analysis and prediction methods currently excel in quantitative analysis, offering accurate future predictions and diverse statistical indicators, but generally falling short in elucidating the underlying evolution patterns of time series. To gain a more comprehensive understanding and provide insightful explanations, we utilize symbolic regression techniques to derive explicit expressions for the non-linear dynamics in the evolution of time series variables. However, these techniques face challenges in computational efficiency and generalizability across diverse real-world time series data. To overcome these challenges, we propose \textbf{N}eural-\textbf{E}nhanced \textbf{Mo}nte-Carlo \textbf{T}ree \textbf{S}earch (NEMoTS) for time series. NEMoTS leverages the exploration-exploitation balance of Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), significantly reducing the search space in symbolic regression and improving expression quality. Furthermore, by integrating neural networks with MCTS, NEMoTS not only capitalizes on their superior fitting capabilities to concentrate on more pertinent operations post-search space reduction, but also replaces the complex and time-consuming simulation process, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency and generalizability in time series analysis. NEMoTS offers an efficient and comprehensive approach to time series analysis. Experiments with three real-world datasets demonstrate NEMoTS's significant superiority in performance, efficiency, reliability, and interpretability, making it well-suited for large-scale real-world time series data.