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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Active, anytime-valid risk controlling prediction sets
Ziyu Xu, Nikos Karampatziakis, Paul Mineiro · 2024-06-15 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Rigorously establishing the safety of black-box machine learning models concerning critical risk measures is important for providing guarantees about model behavior. Recently, Bates et. al. (JACM '24) introduced the notion of a risk controlling prediction set (RCPS) for producing prediction sets that are statistically guaranteed low risk from machine learning models. Our method extends this notion to the sequential setting, where we provide guarantees even when the data is collected adaptively, and ensures that the risk guarantee is anytime-valid, i.e., simultaneously holds at all time steps. Further, we propose a framework for constructing RCPSes for active labeling, i.e., allowing one to use a labeling policy that chooses whether to query the true label for each received data point and ensures that the expected proportion of data points whose labels are queried are below a predetermined label budget. We also describe how to use predictors (i.e., the machine learning model for which we provide risk control guarantees) to further improve the utility of our RCPSes by estimating the expected risk conditioned on the covariates. We characterize the optimal choices of label policy and predictor under a fixed label budget and show a regret result that relates the estimation error of the optimal labeling policy and predictor to the wealth process that underlies our RCPSes. Lastly, we present practical ways of formulating label policies and empirically show that our label policies use fewer labels to reach higher utility than naive baseline labeling strategies on both simulations and real data.