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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Benchmarking Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Models...
Ziyu Lu, Anna J. Li, Alexander E. Ladd, Pascha Matveev, Aditya D · 2025-10-21 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Neural activity forecasting is central to understanding neural systems and enabling closed-loop control. While deep learning has recently advanced the state-of-the-art in the time series forecasting literature, its application to neural activity forecasting remains limited. To bridge this gap, we systematically evaluated eight probabilistic deep learning models, including two foundation models, that have demonstrated strong performance on general forecasting benchmarks. We compared them against four classical statistical models and two baseline methods on spontaneous neural activity recorded from mouse cortex via widefield imaging. Across prediction horizons, several deep learning models consistently outperformed classical approaches, with the best model producing informative forecasts up to 1.5 seconds into the future. Our findings point toward future control applications and open new avenues for probing the intrinsic temporal structure of neural activity.