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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Instrumented data for causal scientific machine learning
Daniel N. Wilke · 2026-06-06 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Scientific machine learning is limited less by model size than by the data it is trained on. Observational data records what happened but not why; template synthetic data has a known generating process but only for the simulator's template, not the case a user faces. We argue a third option is now operationally feasible: instrumented data, in which every datum carries the mechanistic model that produced it, an explicit uncertainty over that model, and an executable family of counterfactuals. Verification-and-validation (V&V) instrumented image-to-simulation pipelines are one realisation: a sensor observation becomes a fully specified, solver-backed simulation with explicit, editable parameters and a propagated aleatoric/epistemic uncertainty. The substrate is case-specific, mechanistically supervised, and supports causal interventions through Pearl's do-operator. Near-term consequences for validation, auditing, and surrogate training span computational biology, climate, materials, fluid mechanics, and medical imaging; a longer-term, falsifiable implication concerns foundation models for scientific reasoning.