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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
VisitHGNN: Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks for Modeli...
Lin Pang, Jidong J. Yang · 2025-10-03 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Understanding how urban residents travel between neighborhoods and destinations is critical for transportation planning, mobility management, and public health. By mining historical origin-to-destination flow patterns with spatial, temporal, and functional relations among urban places, we estimate probabilities of visits from neighborhoods to specific destinations. These probabilities capture neighborhood-level contributions to citywide vehicular and foot traffic, supporting demand estimation, accessibility assessment, and multimodal planning. Particularly, we introduce VisitHGNN, a heterogeneous, relation-specific graph neural network designed to predict visit probabilities at individual Points of interest (POIs). POIs are characterized using numerical, JSON-derived, and textual attributes, augmented with fixed summaries of POI--POI spatial proximity, temporal co-activity, and brand affinity, while census block groups (CBGs) are described with 72 socio-demographic variables. CBGs are connected via spatial adjacency, and POIs and CBGs are linked through distance-annotated cross-type edges. Inference is constrained to a distance-based candidate set of plausible origin CBGs, and training minimizes a masked Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to yield probability distribution across the candidate set. Using weekly mobility data from Fulton County, Georgia, USA, VisitHGNN achieves strong predictive performance with mean KL divergence of 0.287, MAE of 0.008, Top-1 accuracy of 0.853, and R-square of 0.892, substantially outperforming pairwise MLP and distance-only baselines, and aligning closely with empirical visitation patterns (NDCG@50 = 0.966); Recall@5 = 0.611). The resulting distributions closely mirror observed travel behavior with high fidelity, highlighting the model's potential for decision support in urban planning, transportation policy, mobility system design, and public health.