惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Jina AI
Jina AI
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
P
Proofpoint News Feed
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
D
DataBreaches.Net
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
月光博客
月光博客
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
I
InfoQ
F
Fortinet All Blogs
J
Java Code Geeks
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
美团技术团队
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
博客园_首页
量子位
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
小众软件
小众软件

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Backward Conformal Prediction
Etienne Gauthier, Francis Bach, Michael I. Jordan · 2025-05-20 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and allows the conformal set size to vary, our approach defines a rule that constrains how prediction set sizes behave based on the observed data, and adapts the coverage level accordingly. Our method builds on two key foundations: (i) recent results by Gauthier et al. [2025] on post-hoc validity using e-values, which ensure marginal coverage of the form $\mathbb{P}(Y_{\rm test} \in \hat C_n^{\tildeα}(X_{\rm test})) \ge 1 - \mathbb{E}[\tildeα]$ up to a first-order Taylor approximation for any data-dependent miscoverage $\tildeα$, and (ii) a novel leave-one-out estimator $\hatα^{\rm LOO}$ of the marginal miscoverage $\mathbb{E}[\tildeα]$ based on the calibration set, ensuring that the theoretical guarantees remain computable in practice. This approach is particularly useful in applications where large prediction sets are impractical such as medical diagnosis. We provide theoretical results and empirical evidence supporting the validity of our method, demonstrating that it maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.