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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Variational Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourcing Predictions
Desmond Cai, Duc Thien Nguyen, Shiau Hong Lim, Laura Wynter · 2020-06-01 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Crowdsourcing has emerged as an effective means for performing a number of machine learning tasks such as annotation and labelling of images and other data sets. In most early settings of crowdsourcing, the task involved classification, that is assigning one of a discrete set of labels to each task. Recently, however, more complex tasks have been attempted including asking crowdsource workers to assign continuous labels, or predictions. In essence, this involves the use of crowdsourcing for function estimation. We are motivated by this problem to drive applications such as collaborative prediction, that is, harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to predict quantities more accurately. To do so, we propose a Bayesian approach aimed specifically at alleviating overfitting, a typical impediment to accurate prediction models in practice. In particular, we develop a variational Bayesian technique for two different worker noise models - one that assumes workers' noises are independent and the other that assumes workers' noises have a latent low-rank structure. Our evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that these Bayesian approaches perform significantly better than existing non-Bayesian approaches and are thus potentially useful for this class of crowdsourcing problems.