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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Surrogate Modelling of Proton Dose with Monte Carlo Dropo...
Aaron Pim, Tristan Pryer · 2025-09-17 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Accurate proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo (MC) is computationally demanding in workflows like robust optimisation, adaptive replanning, and probabilistic inference, which require repeated evaluations. To address this, we develop a neural surrogate that integrates Monte Carlo dropout to provide fast, differentiable dose predictions along with voxelwise predictive uncertainty. The method is validated through a series of experiments, starting with a one-dimensional analytic benchmark that establishes accuracy, convergence, and variance decomposition. Two-dimensional bone-water phantoms, generated using TOPAS Geant4, demonstrate the method's behavior under domain heterogeneity and beam uncertainty, while a three-dimensional water phantom confirms scalability for volumetric dose prediction. Across these settings, we separate epistemic (model) from parametric (input) contributions, showing that epistemic variance increases under distribution shift, while parametric variance dominates at material boundaries. The approach achieves significant speedups over MC while retaining uncertainty information, making it suitable for integration into robust planning, adaptive workflows, and uncertainty-aware optimisation in proton therapy.