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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Hybrid State Space-based Learning for Sequential Data Pre...
Mustafa E. Aydın, Arda Fazla, Suleyman S. Kozat · 2023-09-19 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We investigate nonlinear prediction/regression in an online setting and introduce a hybrid model that effectively mitigates, via a joint mechanism through a state space formulation, the need for domain-specific feature engineering issues of conventional nonlinear prediction models and achieves an efficient mix of nonlinear and linear components. In particular, we use recursive structures to extract features from raw sequential sequences and a traditional linear time series model to deal with the intricacies of the sequential data, e.g., seasonality, trends. The state-of-the-art ensemble or hybrid models typically train the base models in a disjoint manner, which is not only time consuming but also sub-optimal due to the separation of modeling or independent training. In contrast, as the first time in the literature, we jointly optimize an enhanced recurrent neural network (LSTM) for automatic feature extraction from raw data and an ARMA-family time series model (SARIMAX) for effectively addressing peculiarities associated with time series data. We achieve this by introducing novel state space representations for the base models, which are then combined to provide a full state space representation of the hybrid or the ensemble. Hence, we are able to jointly optimize both models in a single pass via particle filtering, for which we also provide the update equations. The introduced architecture is generic so that one can use other recurrent architectures, e.g., GRUs, traditional time series-specific models, e.g., ETS or other optimization methods, e.g., EKF, UKF. Due to such novel combination and joint optimization, we demonstrate significant improvements in widely publicized real life competition datasets. We also openly share our code for further research and replicability of our results.