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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning-Based Pre...
Xiaoping Du · 2025-07-20 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Machine learning (ML) surrogate models are increasingly used in engineering analysis and design to replace computationally expensive simulation models, significantly reducing computational cost and accelerating decision-making processes. However, ML predictions contain inherent errors, often estimated as model uncertainty, which is coupled with variability in model inputs. Accurately quantifying and propagating these combined uncertainties is essential for generating reliable engineering predictions. This paper presents a robust framework based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) to handle joint input and model uncertainty propagation. While the approach applies broadly to general ML surrogates, we focus on Gaussian Process regression models, which provide explicit predictive distributions for model uncertainty. By transforming all random inputs into a unified standard space, a PCE surrogate model is constructed, allowing efficient and accurate calculation of the mean and standard deviation of the output. The proposed methodology also offers a mechanism for global sensitivity analysis, enabling the accurate quantification of the individual contributions of input variables and ML model uncertainty to the overall output variability. This approach provides a computationally efficient and interpretable framework for comprehensive uncertainty quantification, supporting trustworthy ML predictions in downstream engineering applications.